Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.98 – 121.75

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.5 ±16.5

2207Bright Bears

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 23Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 85.71Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 64.27Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.5 ±16.5

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 109.13Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 22.98Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -10.36Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2207, 2549, 3883

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2207, 2549, 3883

Auto

45.5 27%

Teleop

98.5 59%

Endgame

23.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3130, 10950, 2606

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3130, 10950, 2606

Auto

31.9 26%

Teleop

71.5 59%

Endgame

18.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score173pts

Blue projected score121.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.2
Score range: 95–200
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.5Season APEX335.5

45.5Auto31.9

98.5Teleop71.5

23.2Endgame18.2

19Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	49
teleop	40	81
endgame	75	49
foul	0	0
total	166	179

Result

Final score

166 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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