Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.79 – 140.55

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.2 ±13.3

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 40.16Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 51.47Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 153.16Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.6 ±16.5

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 68.11Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 24.02Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2498BearBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 48.42Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3042, 2129, 3293

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3042, 2129, 3293

Auto

44.3 18%

Teleop

117.4 49%

Endgame

79.4 33%

Strengths

· 3293 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2502, 2500, 2498

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2502, 2500, 2498

Auto

18.6 13%

Teleop

73.9 52%

Endgame

49.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score244.8pts

Blue projected score140.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.2
Score range: 115–271
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 147.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.2Season APEX244.6

44.3Auto18.6

117.4Teleop73.9

79.4Endgame49.7

32Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	32
teleop	60	65
endgame	54	59
foul	0	0
total	163	156

Result

Final score

163 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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