Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.03 – 47.64

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.5 ±12.8

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 35.66Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 82.28Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 46.09Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.3 ±20.2

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -0.11Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2513T.E.R.T.O.L.A.

Provisional

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -4.43Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2175The Fighting Calculators

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 52.18Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2526, 6147, 3206

/ 100 compat

Projected

164 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2526, 6147, 3206

Auto

27.5 16%

Teleop

97.9 57%

Endgame

46.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8787, 2513, 2175

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8787, 2513, 2175

Auto

19.6 40%

Teleop

11.0 23%

Endgame

18.0 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164pts

Blue projected score47.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.4
Score range: 22–190
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 146.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.5Season APEX130.3

27.5Auto19.6

97.9Teleop11

46.5Endgame18

25Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	26
teleop	153	32
endgame	49	17
foul	5	0
total	240	75

Result

Final score

240 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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