Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

36.22 – 0

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.5 ±13.5

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX -2.07Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 40.14Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX -1.85Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.2 ±19.2

9157Iconic Panthers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 8.18Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3751Tower View Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31Event APEX -6.84Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -2.69Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4693, 10490, 2169

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4693, 10490, 2169

Auto

11.7 29%

Teleop

13.7 34%

Endgame

14.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9157, 3751, 4166

/ 100 compat

Projected

-1.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9157, 3751, 4166

Auto

6.4 100%

Teleop

-6.3 0%

Endgame

1.3 93%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.2pts

Blue projected score-1.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.2
Score range: -27–63
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 98 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.5Season APEX121.2

11.7Auto6.4

13.7Teleop-6.3

14.4Endgame1.3

56Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	10
teleop	49	13
endgame	9	5
foul	0	0
total	70	28

Result

Final score

70 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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