Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.71 – 30.71

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.7 ±16.2

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 140.71Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7273ZooM 7273

Provisional

Season APEX 91Event APEX 22.98Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 33.02Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.2 ±16.5

2518Spartan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 22.4Event APEX 9.32Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 33.48Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX -12.09Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3100, 7273, 3691

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3100, 7273, 3691

Auto

19.8 10%

Teleop

116.2 60%

Endgame

56.7 29%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2518, 5464, 6217

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2518, 5464, 6217

Auto

12.6 45%

Teleop

7.8 28%

Endgame

7.6 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196.7pts

Blue projected score30.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166
Score range: 4–224
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.7Season APEX150.2

19.8Auto12.6

116.2Teleop7.8

56.7Endgame7.6

20Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	103	12
endgame	20	3
foul	0	5
total	142	32

Result

Final score

142 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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