Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

253.08 – 168.05

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.1 ±15.6

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 170.26Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 67.29Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9157Iconic Panthers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 15.53Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.6 ±16.5

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 41.42Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2518Spartan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 22.4Event APEX 8.79Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 117.84Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2052, 2502, 9157

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2052, 2502, 9157

Auto

43.2 17%

Teleop

149.9 60%

Endgame

58.4 23%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3206, 2518, 3130

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 2518, 3130

Auto

33.0 20%

Teleop

85.7 51%

Endgame

48.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score253.1pts

Blue projected score168.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85
Score range: 139–282
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.1Season APEX202.6

43.2Auto33

149.9Teleop85.7

58.4Endgame48.5

1Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	39
teleop	174	80
endgame	78	52
foul	0	0
total	292	171

Result

Final score

292 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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