Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.27 – 172.81

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.4 ±14.9

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 175.33Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2264Trojan Robotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 75.42Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 79.52Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±16.5

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 109.59Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 67.63Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -4.41Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2052, 2264, 4198

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2052, 2264, 4198

Auto

59.0 18%

Teleop

191.5 58%

Endgame

79.4 24%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8234, 10479, 2606

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8234, 10479, 2606

Auto

26.3 15%

Teleop

106.5 60%

Endgame

43.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score330.3pts

Blue projected score172.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 157.5
Score range: 146–357
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.4Season APEX258.2

59Auto26.3

191.5Teleop106.5

79.4Endgame43.3

62Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	32
teleop	204	72
endgame	67	27
foul	0	5
total	336	136

Result

Final score

336 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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