Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.55 – 218.71

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.7 ±17.5

5996R.U.R.

Provisional

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 17.15Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 55.1Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 78.3Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.8 ±13.5

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 137.48Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 53.39Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 27.84Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5996, 3891, 2549

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5996, 3891, 2549

Auto

24.2 17%

Teleop

88.0 63%

Endgame

27.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2472, 8878, 10950

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 8878, 10950

Auto

40.5 19%

Teleop

110.8 52%

Endgame

63.1 29%

Strengths

· 2472 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150.6pts

Blue projected score218.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.2
Score range: 125–245
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.7Season APEX466.8

24.2Auto40.5

88Teleop110.8

27.1Endgame63.1

56Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	38
teleop	108	99
endgame	45	62
foul	0	30
total	194	229

Result

Final score

194 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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