Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.04 – 154.74

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 85.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.1 ±18

2225Rebel Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 2.89Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2207Bright Bears

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 14.11Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 158.04Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.1 ±15.1

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 145.35Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3291Au Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -10.79Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 20.18Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2225, 2207, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

175 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2225, 2207, 4655

Auto

29.6 18%

Teleop

100.6 61%

Endgame

34.3 21%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3293, 3291, 3630

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3293, 3291, 3630

Auto

35.4 24%

Teleop

85.8 59%

Endgame

25.3 17%

Strengths

· 3293 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175pts

Blue projected score154.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.3
Score range: 129–201
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.1Season APEX392.1

29.6Auto35.4

100.6Teleop85.8

34.3Endgame25.3

56Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	41
teleop	148	134
endgame	59	65
foul	5	0
total	261	240

Result

Final score

261 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 85.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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