Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.37 – 202.03

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.7 ±18.8

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 7.31Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5271Open Circuits

Provisional

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 22.94Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6909SAKURA Tempesta

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 7.12Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.8 ±16.5

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 101.39Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5434Falcon Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 45.73Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 54.91Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2574, 5271, 6909

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2574, 5271, 6909

Auto

22.3 77%

Teleop

20.3 70%

Endgame

-13.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3130, 5434, 3883

/ 100 compat

Projected

202 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3130, 5434, 3883

Auto

48.8 24%

Teleop

114.9 58%

Endgame

35.9 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.4pts

Blue projected score202pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.7
Score range: 11–228
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.7Season APEX295.8

22.3Auto48.8

20.3Teleop114.9

-13.8Endgame35.9

25Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	79
teleop	10	155
endgame	5	58
foul	0	0
total	27	292

Result

Final score

27 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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