Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126 – 255.29

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.7 ±18.1

2513T.E.R.T.O.L.A.

Provisional

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -5.01Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 42.77Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2264Trojan Robotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 88.24Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377 ±12.8

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 150.41Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 61.9Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 42.98Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2513, 3042, 2264

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2513, 3042, 2264

Auto

26.9 21%

Teleop

47.1 37%

Endgame

55.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3100, 2129, 10490

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3100, 2129, 10490

Auto

30.9 12%

Teleop

153.6 61%

Endgame

66.3 26%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126pts

Blue projected score255.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.3
Score range: 100–281
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.7Season APEX377

26.9Auto30.9

47.1Teleop153.6

55Endgame66.3

79Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	27
teleop	48	70
endgame	29	111
foul	0	0
total	120	208

Result

Final score

120 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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