Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.19 – 143.26

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.1 ±14.5

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 83.45Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 0.94Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 21.8Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.9 ±13.9

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 17.95Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 68.87Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 56.44Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4198, 4693, 2500

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4198, 4693, 2500

Auto

17.5 16%

Teleop

59.1 55%

Endgame

31.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10950, 2549, 2502

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10950, 2549, 2502

Auto

22.5 16%

Teleop

99.1 70%

Endgame

20.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.2pts

Blue projected score143.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.1
Score range: 80–169
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.1Season APEX396.9

17.5Auto22.5

59.1Teleop99.1

31.6Endgame20.3

70Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	39
teleop	69	133
endgame	34	60
foul	0	0
total	118	232

Result

Final score

118 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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