Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.86 – 184.62

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.1 ±13.9

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 78.83Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 47.91Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 41.12Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.9 ±14.7

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 134.05Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5996R.U.R.

Provisional

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 22.84Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 27.73Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10479, 2526, 5464

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10479, 2526, 5464

Auto

27.6 16%

Teleop

100.1 60%

Endgame

40.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2472, 5996, 3630

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 5996, 3630

Auto

30.8 17%

Teleop

80.9 46%

Endgame

64.6 37%

Strengths

· 2472 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167.9pts

Blue projected score184.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.8
Score range: 142–211
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.1Season APEX404.9

27.6Auto30.8

100.1Teleop80.9

40.5Endgame64.6

48Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	36
teleop	66	82
endgame	21	35
foul	0	0
total	112	153

Result

Final score

112 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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