Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.37 – 112.64

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.5 ±18.8

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 96.17Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3751Tower View Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31Event APEX 0.1Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3291Au Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -3.9Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.2 ±18

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 81.19Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -7.63Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5434Falcon Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 39.08Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3130, 3751, 3291

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3130, 3751, 3291

Auto

28.9 30%

Teleop

62.8 65%

Endgame

4.2 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6147, 2606, 5434

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 2606, 5434

Auto

19.6 17%

Teleop

71.4 63%

Endgame

22.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.4pts

Blue projected score112.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.3
Score range: 66–139
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.5Season APEX271.2

28.9Auto19.6

62.8Teleop71.4

4.2Endgame22

41Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	28
teleop	58	65
endgame	10	66
foul	15	0
total	104	159

Result

Final score

104 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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