Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.8 – 189.3

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.4 ±16.6

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 140.9Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7273ZooM 7273

Provisional

Season APEX 91Event APEX 18.76Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 39.14Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.9 ±18

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 174.91Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6909SAKURA Tempesta

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 9.02Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 5.37Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3293, 7273, 8878

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3293, 7273, 8878

Auto

45.1 23%

Teleop

112.7 57%

Endgame

38.3 20%

Strengths

· 3293 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2052, 6909, 8787

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2052, 6909, 8787

Auto

49.3 27%

Teleop

87.7 49%

Endgame

42.3 24%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score198.8pts

Blue projected score189.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.5
Score range: 163–225
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.4Season APEX375.9

45.1Auto49.3

112.7Teleop87.7

38.3Endgame42.3

97Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	42
teleop	119	132
endgame	78	33
foul	0	0
total	235	207

Result

Final score

235 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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