Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.1 – 245.33

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.2 ±16.2

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 55.09Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 4.79Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 129.22Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.4 ±15.6

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 73.29Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 177.06Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3751Tower View Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31Event APEX -5.02Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8878, 8787, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8878, 8787, 3100

Auto

26.6 15%

Teleop

98.7 54%

Endgame

57.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4198, 4655, 3751

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4198, 4655, 3751

Auto

38.5 16%

Teleop

149.6 62%

Endgame

55.1 23%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.1pts

Blue projected score245.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.2
Score range: 160–274
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.2Season APEX383.4

26.6Auto38.5

98.7Teleop149.6

57.1Endgame55.1

42Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	44
teleop	91	162
endgame	75	71
foul	0	0
total	193	277

Result

Final score

193 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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