Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.09 – 60.64

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.1 ±15.6

5271Open Circuits

Provisional

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 10.58Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 151.37Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 98.14Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.6 ±17

2518Spartan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 22.4Event APEX 14.81Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 48.77Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -2.94Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5271, 4655, 8234

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5271, 4655, 8234

Auto

43.1 17%

Teleop

154.2 61%

Endgame

57.2 22%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2518, 3883, 4166

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.6 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2518, 3883, 4166

Auto

21.2 35%

Teleop

27.2 45%

Endgame

12.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score260.1pts

Blue projected score60.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 199.5
Score range: 35–286
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.1Season APEX165.6

43.1Auto21.2

154.2Teleop27.2

57.2Endgame12.4

6Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	26
teleop	200	20
endgame	64	30
foul	0	0
total	316	76

Result

Final score

316 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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