Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.48 – 83.63

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.7 ±13.9

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 51.09Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 84.9Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 40.49Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.5 ±17

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 56.52Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 29.39Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2513T.E.R.T.O.L.A.

Provisional

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -2.28Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3206, 4198, 3042

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 4198, 3042

Auto

30.1 17%

Teleop

97.7 55%

Endgame

49.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2526, 3691, 2513

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2526, 3691, 2513

Auto

26.0 32%

Teleop

37.7 47%

Endgame

16.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176.5pts

Blue projected score83.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.9
Score range: 58–202
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.7Season APEX165.5

30.1Auto26

97.7Teleop37.7

49.7Endgame16.4

18Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	81	11
endgame	67	4
foul	0	0
total	170	41

Result

Final score

170 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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