Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.54 – 116.11

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.2 ±16.5

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 44.07Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5996R.U.R.

Provisional

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 21.48Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 13.99Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.4 ±15.8

2264Trojan Robotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 88.35Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 47.76Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX -20Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5464, 5996, 10950

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5464, 5996, 10950

Auto

13.4 18%

Teleop

33.3 44%

Endgame

28.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2264, 2502, 6217

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2264, 2502, 6217

Auto

15.5 14%

Teleop

53.8 47%

Endgame

45.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.5pts

Blue projected score116.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.6
Score range: 54–142
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.2Season APEX278.4

13.4Auto15.5

33.3Teleop53.8

28.2Endgame45.5

96Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	34
teleop	31	73
endgame	22	33
foul	0	0
total	82	140

Result

Final score

82 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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