Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.63 – 92.69

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.1 ±15.6

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -1.47Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 20.08Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 83.02Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.1 ±16.5

7273ZooM 7273

Provisional

Season APEX 91Event APEX 18.1Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 43.99Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 30.6Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8787, 3630, 3130

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8787, 3630, 3130

Auto

26.8 27%

Teleop

52.6 52%

Endgame

21.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7273, 10490, 2500

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7273, 10490, 2500

Auto

13.6 14%

Teleop

48.5 51%

Endgame

33.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.6pts

Blue projected score92.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.9
Score range: 67–128
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 145.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.1Season APEX212.1

26.8Auto13.6

52.6Teleop48.5

21Endgame33.9

67Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	26
teleop	94	45
endgame	34	11
foul	0	0
total	167	82

Result

Final score

167 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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