Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.1 – 311.26

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.1 ±18

2225Rebel Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX -1.24Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 5.8Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5434Falcon Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 36.54Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.8 ±11.7

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 63.89Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 134.04Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 113.33Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2225, 2169, 5434

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2225, 2169, 5434

Auto

11.7 32%

Teleop

22.2 60%

Endgame

2.9 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10479, 3100, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.3 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10479, 3100, 2472

Auto

55.0 18%

Teleop

198.0 65%

Endgame

52.9 17%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.1pts

Blue projected score311.3pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -270.2
Score range: 15–337
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.1Season APEX528.8

11.7Auto55

22.2Teleop198

2.9Endgame52.9

94Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	16
teleop	18	244
endgame	11	175
foul	5	0
total	55	435

Result

Final score

55 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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