Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.36 – 160.88

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 67.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.5 ±16.2

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 16.41Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 6.88Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 164.07Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.9 ±18.1

2498BearBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 28.93Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2175The Fighting Calculators

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 40.59Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 91.36Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4693, 2606, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4693, 2606, 4655

Auto

32.4 17%

Teleop

118.3 61%

Endgame

43.5 22%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2498, 2175, 8234

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2498, 2175, 8234

Auto

27.7 16%

Teleop

94.3 56%

Endgame

46.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score187.4pts

Blue projected score160.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.5
Score range: 135–213
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 142.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.5Season APEX250.9

32.4Auto27.7

118.3Teleop94.3

43.5Endgame46.7

133Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	42
teleop	60	118
endgame	24	60
foul	0	0
total	112	220

Result

Final score

112 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 67.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.