Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

218.99 – 98.13

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.6 ±14.1

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -2.94Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 48.66Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 173.27Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269 ±15.6

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 13.22Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3291Au Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -2.31Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 87.22Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4166, 8878, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

219 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4166, 8878, 2052

Auto

50.8 23%

Teleop

124.2 57%

Endgame

43.9 20%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2574, 3291, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2574, 3291, 6147

Auto

21.4 22%

Teleop

65.6 68%

Endgame

9.0 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score219pts

Blue projected score98.1pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.9
Score range: 72–245
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.6Season APEX269

50.8Auto21.4

124.2Teleop65.6

43.9Endgame9

61Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	23
teleop	150	26
endgame	43	0
foul	0	0
total	249	49

Result

Final score

249 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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