Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.81 – 132.61

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±16

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 38.61Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 137.38Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9157Iconic Panthers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 5.82Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.2 ±17.5

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 63.23Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3751Tower View Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31Event APEX 8.41Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 60.97Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5464, 3293, 9157

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5464, 3293, 9157

Auto

32.0 17%

Teleop

99.6 54%

Endgame

52.7 29%

Strengths

· 3293 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3883, 3751, 3891

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3883, 3751, 3891

Auto

30.4 24%

Teleop

64.3 52%

Endgame

29.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score181.8pts

Blue projected score132.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.2
Score range: 107–208
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 143.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.7Season APEX215.2

32Auto30.4

99.6Teleop64.3

52.7Endgame29.6

82Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	36
teleop	126	18
endgame	50	18
foul	0	0
total	218	72

Result

Final score

218 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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