Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.54 – 31.4

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.7 ±12.2

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 8.11Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 126.6Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 115.83Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.8 ±18

2513T.E.R.T.O.L.A.

Provisional

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -1.36Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 33.36Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -0.6Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2574, 3293, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2574, 3293, 2472

Auto

54.9 22%

Teleop

127.7 52%

Endgame

63.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2513, 3630, 2606

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2513, 3630, 2606

Auto

24.2 71%

Teleop

2.4 7%

Endgame

7.6 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score250.5pts

Blue projected score31.4pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 219.1
Score range: 2–280
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.7Season APEX216.8

54.9Auto24.2

127.7Teleop2.4

63.5Endgame7.6

35Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	19
teleop	194	0
endgame	61	2
foul	0	0
total	318	21

Result

Final score

318 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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