Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.74 – 172.37

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.7 ±15.8

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 81.96Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 21.04Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2264Trojan Robotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 75.74Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.2 ±12.8

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX -22.26Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 81.56Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 113.07Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3130, 2500, 2264

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3130, 2500, 2264

Auto

26.7 14%

Teleop

111.7 60%

Endgame

47.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6217, 4198, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6217, 4198, 2472

Auto

35.3 21%

Teleop

103.6 61%

Endgame

30.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score178.7pts

Blue projected score172.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 146–205
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.7Season APEX360.2

26.7Auto35.3

111.7Teleop103.6

47.6Endgame30.4

97Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	34
teleop	103	98
endgame	80	63
foul	0	10
total	221	205

Result

Final score

221 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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