Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

30.77 – 22.29

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 63 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225 ±16.2

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 14.69Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2518Spartan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 22.4Event APEX 7.01Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 9.07Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.3 ±20.8

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -8.31Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5434Falcon Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 29.44Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2207Bright Bears

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 1.16Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3630, 2518, 4693

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 2518, 4693

Auto

20.2 67%

Teleop

1.3 4%

Endgame

8.6 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8787, 5434, 2207

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8787, 5434, 2207

Auto

19.7 96%

Teleop

-15.5 0%

Endgame

16.3 80%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score30.8pts

Blue projected score22.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.5
Score range: -4–57
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 142.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225Season APEX209.3

20.2Auto19.7

1.3Teleop-15.5

8.6Endgame16.3

41Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	14
teleop	36	44
endgame	20	26
foul	0	30
total	65	114

Result

Final score

65 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 63 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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