Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.12 – 113.57

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.4 ±17

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -0.45Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 33.49Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 45.08Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.4 ±17

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 40.8Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 62.82Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2225Rebel Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 9.95Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2606, 10490, 8878

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2606, 10490, 8878

Auto

12.5 16%

Teleop

42.1 55%

Endgame

22.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3691, 2129, 2225

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3691, 2129, 2225

Auto

27.5 27%

Teleop

50.5 50%

Endgame

22.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.1pts

Blue projected score113.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.4
Score range: 52–140
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 143.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.4Season APEX210.4

12.5Auto27.5

42.1Teleop50.5

22.2Endgame22.6

110Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	16
teleop	47	27
endgame	29	27
foul	0	5
total	107	75

Result

Final score

107 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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