Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.63 – 294.42

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.5 ±18

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 146.84Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3291Au Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 6.64Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5996R.U.R.

Provisional

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 30.15Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±13.3

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 80.54Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 62.9Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 150.98Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3100, 3291, 5996

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3100, 3291, 5996

Auto

25.6 14%

Teleop

107.5 58%

Endgame

52.1 28%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2549, 3206, 3293

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2549, 3206, 3293

Auto

60.7 21%

Teleop

175.4 60%

Endgame

55.5 19%

Strengths

· 3293 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score183.6pts

Blue projected score294.4pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.8
Score range: 158–320
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 142.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.5Season APEX341.9

25.6Auto60.7

107.5Teleop175.4

52.1Endgame55.5

18Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	40
teleop	92	146
endgame	17	43
foul	15	0
total	140	229

Result

Final score

140 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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