Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.89 – 71.55

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 57.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.3 ±18.8

2498BearBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 50.73Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9157Iconic Panthers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 24.14Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 26.02Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.1 ±15.6

6909SAKURA Tempesta

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX -13.65Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 2Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 83.2Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2498, 9157, 2574

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2498, 9157, 2574

Auto

17.0 16%

Teleop

61.7 56%

Endgame

30.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6909, 10950, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6909, 10950, 6147

Auto

13.3 22%

Teleop

30.3 50%

Endgame

16.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.9pts

Blue projected score71.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.3
Score range: 46–127
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 144.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.3Season APEX386.1

17Auto13.3

61.7Teleop30.3

30.7Endgame16.8

0Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	24
teleop	18	86
endgame	4	20
foul	0	0
total	44	130

Result

Final score

44 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 57.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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