Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

18.35 – 192.13

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.1 ±16.5

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX -27.27Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 40.13Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3751Tower View Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31Event APEX 5.49Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.7 ±14.7

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 166.56Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5271Open Circuits

Provisional

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 10.35Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 15.22Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6217, 3042, 3751

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6217, 3042, 3751

Auto

6.8 33%

Teleop

-11.9 0%

Endgame

25.7 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2052, 5271, 3630

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2052, 5271, 3630

Auto

43.9 24%

Teleop

122.3 66%

Endgame

20.5 11%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score18.4pts

Blue projected score192.1pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -173.8
Score range: -8–218
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.1Season APEX487.7

6.8Auto43.9

-11.9Teleop122.3

25.7Endgame20.5

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	51
teleop	21	105
endgame	5	41
foul	0	5
total	42	202

Result

Final score

42 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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