Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.01 – 104.58

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.4 ±18.8

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -6.68Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 51.37Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2518Spartan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 22.4Event APEX 11.32Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.9 ±15

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 38.13Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 67.08Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX -0.63Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2606, 2502, 2518

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2606, 2502, 2518

Auto

4.2 7%

Teleop

29.5 47%

Endgame

28.5 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8878, 10479, 4693

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8878, 10479, 4693

Auto

26.7 25%

Teleop

63.3 60%

Endgame

15.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56pts

Blue projected score104.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.6
Score range: 30–131
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.4Season APEX256.9

4.2Auto26.7

29.5Teleop63.3

28.5Endgame15.5

65Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	36
teleop	36	74
endgame	26	29
foul	0	0
total	72	139

Result

Final score

72 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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