Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.31 – 276.96

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262 ±18.1

5434Falcon Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 25.88Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 71.47Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2264Trojan Robotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 81.96Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 533 ±11

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 146.38Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 138.6Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX -8.02Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5434, 3206, 2264

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5434, 3206, 2264

Auto

30.2 17%

Teleop

91.8 53%

Endgame

51.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4655, 3293, 2169

/ 100 compat

Projected

277 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4655, 3293, 2169

Auto

40.9 14%

Teleop

170.7 60%

Endgame

73.5 26%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score179.3pts

Blue projected score277pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.6
Score range: 153–303
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262Season APEX533

30.2Auto40.9

91.8Teleop170.7

51.9Endgame73.5

46Consistency177

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	57
teleop	70	195
endgame	49	78
foul	0	10
total	161	340

Result

Final score

161 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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