Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.5 – 119.66

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.7 ±18

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 84.8Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7273ZooM 7273

Provisional

Season APEX 91Event APEX 29.65Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2207Bright Bears

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 27.05Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.9 ±16.5

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 33.58Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5271Open Circuits

Provisional

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 21.54Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 64.54Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6147, 7273, 2207

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 7273, 2207

Auto

22.1 16%

Teleop

69.8 52%

Endgame

43.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3042, 5271, 10479

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3042, 5271, 10479

Auto

25.5 22%

Teleop

68.5 59%

Endgame

22.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.5pts

Blue projected score119.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.8
Score range: 91–171
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.7Season APEX255.9

22.1Auto25.5

69.8Teleop68.5

43.3Endgame22.4

30Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	30
teleop	40	95
endgame	24	23
foul	0	0
total	74	148

Result

Final score

74 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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