Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.18 – 91.37

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.6 ±15.6

2207Bright Bears

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX -15.36Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 53.46Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 129.08Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±16.3

2175The Fighting Calculators

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 35.55Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 37.92Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 17.9Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2207, 3130, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2207, 3130, 3100

Auto

31.4 19%

Teleop

118.1 70%

Endgame

18.5 11%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2175, 5464, 4166

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2175, 5464, 4166

Auto

13.1 14%

Teleop

70.0 73%

Endgame

12.6 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167.2pts

Blue projected score91.4pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.8
Score range: 66–192
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 141.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.6Season APEX177.5

31.4Auto13.1

118.1Teleop70

18.5Endgame12.6

123Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	26
teleop	172	29
endgame	55	25
foul	0	0
total	273	80

Result

Final score

273 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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