Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.34 – 81.35

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.7 ±18.8

2513T.E.R.T.O.L.A.

Provisional

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -3.87Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 102.44Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5996R.U.R.

Provisional

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 32.77Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.2 ±18.8

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 74.03Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9157Iconic Panthers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 22.36Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6909SAKURA Tempesta

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX -15.04Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2513, 4198, 5996

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2513, 4198, 5996

Auto

24.1 19%

Teleop

70.9 57%

Endgame

29.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3883, 9157, 6909

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3883, 9157, 6909

Auto

30.5 45%

Teleop

39.1 57%

Endgame

-1.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.3pts

Blue projected score81.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50
Score range: 55–157
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.7Season APEX191.2

24.1Auto30.5

70.9Teleop39.1

29.9Endgame-1.3

134Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	24
teleop	30	27
endgame	34	13
foul	0	0
total	92	64

Result

Final score

92 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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