Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.07 – 219.66

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.4 ±14.5

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 68.5Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 39.07Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 13.5Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.1 ±14.1

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 83.04Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 60.85Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 75.77Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2549, 3691, 10490

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2549, 3691, 10490

Auto

35.4 33%

Teleop

77.0 71%

Endgame

-4.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6147, 3891, 8234

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 3891, 8234

Auto

18.7 9%

Teleop

135.9 65%

Endgame

53.5 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.1pts

Blue projected score219.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.6
Score range: 96–245
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.4Season APEX341.1

35.4Auto18.7

77Teleop135.9

-4.5Endgame53.5

12Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	32
teleop	115	161
endgame	27	98
foul	5	0
total	180	291

Result

Final score

180 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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