Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.25 – 53.3

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.7 ±16.5

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX -9.94Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2225Rebel Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX -3.26Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 65.45Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.8 ±18.8

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 33.11Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5271Open Circuits

Provisional

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 16.9Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3751Tower View Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31Event APEX 3.29Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 2225, 2526

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10950, 2225, 2526

Auto

8.3 16%

Teleop

30.5 57%

Endgame

14.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2500, 5271, 3751

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 5271, 3751

Auto

8.6 17%

Teleop

32.1 62%

Endgame

11.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.3pts

Blue projected score53.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1
Score range: 26–79
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.7Season APEX145.8

8.3Auto8.6

30.5Teleop32.1

14.3Endgame11.4

174Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	15
teleop	47	24
endgame	15	15
foul	0	0
total	90	54

Result

Final score

90 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 19.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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