Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.69 – 235.15

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.5 ±18

3291Au Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 14.74Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 121.76Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 4.19Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.6 ±15.6

2498BearBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 32.19Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 166.47Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 36.49Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3291, 2472, 8787

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3291, 2472, 8787

Auto

30.2 22%

Teleop

75.3 54%

Endgame

34.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2498, 2052, 3042

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2498, 2052, 3042

Auto

50.8 21%

Teleop

134.8 56%

Endgame

53.8 22%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.7pts

Blue projected score235.2pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.5
Score range: 116–260
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.5Season APEX430.6

30.2Auto50.8

75.3Teleop134.8

34.2Endgame53.8

37Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	45
teleop	26	144
endgame	50	86
foul	0	0
total	96	275

Result

Final score

96 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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