Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.37 – 93.24

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399 ±12.8

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 121.28Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 51.73Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 43.36Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.7 ±16.5

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 48.55Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 22.03Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7273ZooM 7273

Provisional

Season APEX 91Event APEX 22.66Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4655, 3206, 2129

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4655, 3206, 2129

Auto

45.6 21%

Teleop

97.8 46%

Endgame

71.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5464, 2574, 7273

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5464, 2574, 7273

Auto

20.2 21%

Teleop

52.8 55%

Endgame

22.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score216.4pts

Blue projected score93.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.1
Score range: 68–241
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399Season APEX211.7

45.6Auto20.2

97.8Teleop52.8

71.2Endgame22.6

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	21
teleop	176	54
endgame	85	27
foul	0	0
total	314	102

Result

Final score

314 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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