Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.28 – 124.66

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273 ±14.5

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 6.27Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 59.22Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 100.79Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.7 ±16.6

5996R.U.R.

Provisional

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 11.43Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 2.25Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 110.98Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4166, 3130, 4198

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4166, 3130, 4198

Auto

38.8 23%

Teleop

86.6 52%

Endgame

42.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5996, 4693, 3293

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5996, 4693, 3293

Auto

20.9 16%

Teleop

83.7 63%

Endgame

28.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.3pts

Blue projected score124.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.6
Score range: 101–190
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273Season APEX272.7

38.8Auto20.9

86.6Teleop83.7

42.7Endgame28.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	41
teleop	150	93
endgame	14	71
foul	0	0
total	191	205

Result

Final score

191 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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