Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.05 – 204.02

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.6 ±17.5

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 22.06Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 51.15Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -14.16Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.4 ±14.7

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 64.78Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 123.6Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5271Open Circuits

Provisional

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 15.64Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2500, 3891, 2606

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 3891, 2606

Auto

15.4 35%

Teleop

22.1 50%

Endgame

6.7 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6147, 3100, 5271

/ 100 compat

Projected

204 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 3100, 5271

Auto

36.5 18%

Teleop

120.3 59%

Endgame

46.8 23%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.1pts

Blue projected score204pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145
Score range: 35–228
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 135.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.6Season APEX428.4

15.4Auto36.5

22.1Teleop120.3

6.7Endgame46.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	16
teleop	61	179
endgame	31	56
foul	5	0
total	105	251

Result

Final score

105 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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