Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.82 – 185.14

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.3 ±18.8

5434Falcon Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 61.3Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2498BearBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 50.64Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 14.88Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.2 ±13.9

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 44.15Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 95.12Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 45.87Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5434, 2498, 5464

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5434, 2498, 5464

Auto

34.3 27%

Teleop

56.4 45%

Endgame

35.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2526, 8234, 10490

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2526, 8234, 10490

Auto

37.6 20%

Teleop

103.8 56%

Endgame

44.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126.8pts

Blue projected score185.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.3
Score range: 98–214
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.3Season APEX255.2

34.3Auto37.6

56.4Teleop103.8

35.4Endgame44.3

65Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	29
teleop	64	121
endgame	40	44
foul	0	0
total	132	194

Result

Final score

132 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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