Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.73 – 74.29

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186 ±18.8

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 81.75Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6909SAKURA Tempesta

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 0.03Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2518Spartan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 22.4Event APEX 28.95Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.9 ±15.6

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 22.38Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 37.91Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2225Rebel Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 14Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8234, 6909, 2518

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8234, 6909, 2518

Auto

24.6 25%

Teleop

53.9 55%

Endgame

20.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3630, 3042, 2225

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 3042, 2225

Auto

22.0 31%

Teleop

29.8 42%

Endgame

20.0 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.7pts

Blue projected score74.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.4
Score range: 49–136
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186Season APEX287.9

24.6Auto22

53.9Teleop29.8

20Endgame20

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	14
teleop	54	20
endgame	18	19
foul	0	0
total	95	53

Result

Final score

95 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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