Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.08 – 104.31

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.6 ±13.9

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 3.16Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX 3.43Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 82.49Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.6 ±18.8

2498BearBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 30.79Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 6.98Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 66.54Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 6217, 3883

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10950, 6217, 3883

Auto

30.8 35%

Teleop

50.1 57%

Endgame

6.5 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2498, 8787, 10479

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2498, 8787, 10479

Auto

22.8 21%

Teleop

51.0 47%

Endgame

35.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.1pts

Blue projected score104.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.2
Score range: 63–130
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 142.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.6Season APEX253.6

30.8Auto22.8

50.1Teleop51

6.5Endgame35.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	26
teleop	13	61
endgame	2	27
foul	0	0
total	28	114

Result

Final score

28 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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