Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.89 – 92.5

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

49 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.9 ±18.8

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 31.66Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9157Iconic Panthers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 55.39Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5996R.U.R.

Provisional

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 35.84Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.8 ±18.8

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 56.93Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -2.68Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5271Open Circuits

Provisional

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 38.25Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10490, 9157, 5996

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10490, 9157, 5996

Auto

8.4 7%

Teleop

58.3 48%

Endgame

54.2 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2129, 2606, 5271

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2129, 2606, 5271

Auto

22.5 26%

Teleop

47.1 54%

Endgame

18.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.9pts

Blue projected score92.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.4
Score range: 66–150
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 149.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.9Season APEX192.8

8.4Auto22.5

58.3Teleop47.1

54.2Endgame18.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	16
teleop	29	22
endgame	12	6
foul	0	0
total	49	44

Result

Final score

49 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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