Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.37 – 76.74

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.8 ±18.1

5434Falcon Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 42.31Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2175The Fighting Calculators

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 65.81Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 26.25Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.1 ±13.5

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX -2.31Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 36.74Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 42.31Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5434, 2175, 2500

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5434, 2175, 2500

Auto

22.1 17%

Teleop

76.9 59%

Endgame

30.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2169, 8878, 5464

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2169, 8878, 5464

Auto

6.7 9%

Teleop

27.3 37%

Endgame

40.3 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.4pts

Blue projected score76.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.6
Score range: 49–162
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.8Season APEX276.1

22.1Auto6.7

76.9Teleop27.3

30.3Endgame40.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	12
teleop	58	35
endgame	19	19
foul	0	5
total	91	71

Result

Final score

91 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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