Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.39 – 85.07

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.1 ±15.4

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 41.68Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2264Trojan Robotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 49.83Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 86.88Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.5 ±15.7

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 41.68Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 61.89Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX -18.5Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3691, 2264, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3691, 2264, 4655

Auto

24.8 15%

Teleop

88.1 53%

Endgame

51.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3891, 3130, 4693

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3891, 3130, 4693

Auto

21.3 29%

Teleop

33.6 46%

Endgame

18.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score178.4pts

Blue projected score85.1pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.3
Score range: 58–205
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.1Season APEX258.5

24.8Auto21.3

88.1Teleop33.6

51.8Endgame18.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	22
teleop	162	78
endgame	85	23
foul	0	0
total	291	123

Result

Final score

291 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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