Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.96 – 127.47

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.6 ±19.2

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 23.68Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2498BearBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 37.71Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6909SAKURA Tempesta

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 34.57Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±18.8

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 57.37Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2225Rebel Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 41.14Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 28.96Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4166, 2498, 6909

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4166, 2498, 6909

Auto

22.3 27%

Teleop

39.6 48%

Endgame

21.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2549, 2225, 8787

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2549, 2225, 8787

Auto

14.0 11%

Teleop

67.9 54%

Endgame

45.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96pts

Blue projected score127.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.5
Score range: 67–156
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.6Season APEX219.3

22.3Auto14

39.6Teleop67.9

21.3Endgame45

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	20
teleop	2	27
endgame	11	2
foul	0	0
total	31	49

Result

Final score

31 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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