Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.13 – 46.56

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 66.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.2 ±18.8

3751Tower View Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31Event APEX 72.13Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2518Spartan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 22.4Event APEX 48.86Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 11.14Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.1 ±18.8

3291Au Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -1.29Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2513T.E.R.T.O.L.A.

Provisional

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -1.01Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 48.86Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3751, 2518, 10950

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3751, 2518, 10950

Auto

26.0 20%

Teleop

68.9 52%

Endgame

37.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3291, 2513, 3206

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3291, 2513, 3206

Auto

14.5 31%

Teleop

15.0 32%

Endgame

17.7 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.1pts

Blue projected score46.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.6
Score range: 16–163
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 170.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.2Season APEX158.1

26Auto14.5

68.9Teleop15

37.9Endgame17.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	21
teleop	7	26
endgame	0	18
foul	0	0
total	17	65

Result

Final score

17 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 66.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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